CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-10-16T12:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27320/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is C7.5 class flare starting at 2023-10-16T10:31Z and associated eruption. The flare can be best seen in SDO AIA 131/193, opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and dimming and post eruptive loops are also seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival Signature: Characterized by a weak amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 10nT at 2023-10-20T12:38Z. Subsequent increases were observed in density and temperature. This was followed by a rotation in magnetic field components during which an extended period of negative Bz was observed from around 2023-10-20T17:30Z to 2023-10-21T08:00Z. This arrival signature may be reflective of a weak arrival/glancing blow from CME: 2023-10-16T12:09Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-10-20T07:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-19T06:03Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 720.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 780.956 Acceleration: -1.33964 % Compiled module: CALDAT. Duration in seconds: 237294.49 Duration in days: 2.7464640 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -1.34 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 463.1 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/10/2023 Time: 06:03 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 45.03 hour(s)
Difference: 25.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-10-18T10:28Z
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